GDP down 1.9% in 2023, CSO’s preliminary estimate shows

January 30, 2024

New preliminary figures from the Central Statistics Office show that the country’s GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2023 when compared with the third quarter of last year.

The CSO said the fall came on the back of decreases in the multinational dominated sectors of Industry and Information & Communication during the last three months of 2023.

GDP is estimated to have decreased by 3.4% when compared with the same quarter of 2022, the CSO added.

Meanwhile, GDP for the full year 2023 is estimated to have decreased by 1.9%, when compared with 2022, today’s flash figures show.

The CSO cautioned that today’s preliminary estimates are based on forecasting and data sources that are limited in scope when compared with those used for compiling GDP in the its Quarterly National Accounts figures.

The Government has long cautioned against using GDP to accurately measure economic growth as it is routinely inflated by multinational activity. Its preferred measure, modified domestic demand (MDD), is not included in the early estimates.

GDP is still used to calculate Ireland’s share of activity across the euro zone and the preliminary estimate can be subject to sharp revisions.

Irish GDP fell by 1.3% year-on-on-year in the first three quarters, while MDD rose by 0.8%.

Elsewhere, the ESRI has estimated that modified domestic demand grew 2.5% year-on-year in November in its latest Nowcast or flash estimate.

This is up slightly from the 2.3% estimate for October.

“November saw a strong increase in tax revenue as well as an increase in consumer and business sentiment compared to 12 months ago,” it said.

“On the other hand, tightening of financial conditions relative to November 2022 as well as weaker retail sales data compared to twelve months ago put downward pressure on our monthly estimate.”

“Based on all data for October, November and partial data for December, our early nowcast estimates MDD for 2023Q4 to be 2.5% above its level in 2022Q4.”

Article Source – GDP down 1.9% in 2023, CSO’s preliminary estimate shows – RTE

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